Joined: 16 Nov 2005
Location: Florida USA
Ok, my scholars, I think we have reached a point where I should start giving you some probabilities.
I suggest you put some of these that you might have a hard time remembering while playing, on a 3 x 5 or 5 x7 card and keep it beside you when playing online. Soon you will have them all in your head and won't need your card anymore.
First, I am going to give you a few preflop probabilities.
Then some flop probabil.ities.
Then some probabilities for the turn and river.
OK. STARTING WITH PREFLOP: (least important)
Probability of being dealt a pocket pair ..... 5.9%
Probabiliity of being dealt suited cards ..... 23.5%
Probability of being dealt AA ..... 0.45%
Probability of being dealt connecting cards..... 15.7%
Probability of hitting 3 of a kind or 4 of a kind at the flop when you hold a pocket pair ..... 11.8%
Probability you will make a pair at the flop if you are holding 2 unpaired cards in the hole ..... 32.4%
Probability of flopping a a flush, holding 2 suited cards ..... 0.84%
Probability of hitting a flush when you hold 2 suited cards on the turn ..... 19.1%
Probability of hitting a flush when you hold 2 suited cards on the river ..... 19.6%
Probability of hitting a straight on the turn ..... 17%
Probability of hitting a straight on the river ..... 17.4%
NOW. What is the point of knowing these probabilities? Think a minute or two.
Did you figure it out?
To guide you in knowing how much to bet! Did you figure it out?
PCers, those are the only ones I have experimented with enough myself to prove their dependability enough on how much to bet.
You may find probabilities in a lot of poker books, but these are the only ones I can personally guarantee.
I have also experimented with others, but in my opinion, the evidence was not strong enough often enough for me to depend on their reliability -- or to guarantee them.
Authors of poker books will, of course, disagree with me. But I will sit down at the table with them any time for any amount of stakes!
MY POINT: Be careful whose word you depend on. Consider first their motive.