Poker Guru Lessons (archive) - POKER LESSON 403: ODDS PokerGuru - 26.09.2008, 17:10 Post subject: POKER LESSON 403: ODDSPOKER LESSON 403 - ODDS
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Hello my PCers!
I decided on this lesson's topic when I received an email from an old
friend with whom I used to have a lot of fun when we worked on odds
projects together. It reminded me that I haven't spent much time on
poker odds with you. So we shall start on that tonight.
Did you know that the odds of being dealt a pair of pocket Aces is
once in 221 hands? And pocket Kings - about 3 times in 221 times.
That in itself is not very interesting. Nor is the fact that you
will be dealt a pocket pair of SOMETHING once in 17 hands.
But wouldn't it be interesting if you could know the chances of an
opponent being dealt a HIGHER pair than YOURS?
Well, guess what! I've got it all worked out for you!
For this entire lesson, the statistics are based on you playing at a
table with an average of from 6 to 10 players. So if you are playing
head to head with only one other player, throw these numbers out the
window.
Before I give you all the odds, let me explain to you why you should
NEVER fold a pair of Kings before the flop. May sound like common
sense, but let's go with the proven facts! Those facts are: If you
are dealt a pair of pocket Kings, the chances that any opponent will
be holding a pair of pocket Aces are about 1 time in 30. Those odds
are PROOF enough for me to hold on to those Kings at least until the
flop, come hell or high water. (Yes, I talk a LITTLE differently
this year because the majority of you are now my "seniors".)
One more thing before I give you my odds table. Keep this in mind
always: If you are dealt a pocket pair of ANYTHING, you are always a
favorite to hold the best hand, BUT ONLY PRE-FLOP! So don't hang on
to that pair forever!
Now I am going to give you a table of odds --- and THEN I am going to
explain to you how YOU can figure those odds YOURSELF, so you don't
have to memorize this table.
OKAY. Remember, you are at a table of 6 to 10 players for these
figures to be true. I am going to give you 3 columns in the table.
Their titles are PAIRS, HIGHER PAIRS, and ODDS PERCENTAGE.
Assume you are holding the cards in the PAIRS column. The numbers in
the HIGHER PAIRS column represent the number of HIGHER pairs there
are. And the third column is the most important, because the ODDS
PERCENTAGE numbers tell you the chances that an opponent will have a
higher pair than you do. And I ALWAYS play going with the odds! Not
to do so is just guessing - no way to be a winner! (But the way that
most amateurs play!) (Which gives YOU, as educated players, a great
big EDGE!)
Now you know how to read and understand the table, so here it is:
Now, my Special Ones, remember I said you do not have to memorize
that table because you can figure these odds yourselves? You only
have to memorize one sentence and then you can figure the odds so
quickly that you can do it at the table as you play!
Here is that sentence - and by looking at the table, you can see that
it is true! :
THE CHANCES OF ANOTHER PLAYER HAVING A HIGHER PAIR THAN YOU DO ARE ABOUT THREE TIMES THE NUMBER OF HIGHER PAIRS THERE ARE.
Players, I hope this lesson has shown you how simple something can
be, even if the expensive instruction books out there take an entire
chapter or more to explain it!
As always, this lesson has been presented for Poker Crushers only, by
your Everlovin' Guru.rsablebomb - 27.09.2008, 00:59 Post subject:
Very informative guru. Thank you very much
ojisplayin - 27.09.2008, 15:15 Post subject:
Much needed reminder for me.....GURU in my ear saying "I said PRE-FLOP Patti" allight - 27.09.2008, 18:27 Post subject:
Love learning odds better...thanks Guru...I use shortcuts like your odds of someone haveng a better pair is approx. 3 times the number of possible higher pairs all the time. Thanks for the additional info!
allight - 27.09.2008, 18:40 Post subject:
Here are a few of my favorite odds to remember, especially helpful in figuring pot odds:
-Heads up, if you get a pocket ace, there's a 90% chance you're partner does not have an ace.
-You are a 2 to 1 dog when you have two overcards after the flop to hit one of your overcards.
-You are at worst a 3 to 1 dog vs. any hand except pocket aces with one pocket ace in your hand.
-Suited connectors have the best chance to beat pocket Aces, making you about a 3 to 1 dog
-Post flop, multiply your outs by 5 to find the odds in percentages you'll make a hand, after the turn multiply your river outs by 2.
Just a few of the things i use to remember odds...and don't forget to play pot odds!
ojisplayin - 27.09.2008, 20:41 Post subject:
Unless you are going to IMPLANT some sort of chip in my head....Al, I can barely remember.....??
Now what was I going to say again????? The odds on me remembering is around 30-1 PokerGuru - 28.09.2008, 00:42 Post subject: Dearest OJ!
I will give you (and everyone) a simpler way to remember and a few shortcut tricks for pot odds very soon now!
To: Al
But thanks much, Al. I will present a whole seperate lesson on pot odds because it deserves it, don't you think?
Glad you enjoy studying odds! That's an edge factor for you!
By the way, the figures you gave ===== except for the obvious one, for how many at a table?
Thanks again for your great response!
Your Gururatfang - 02.10.2008, 06:18 Post subject:
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valeria - 02.10.2008, 08:00 Post subject:
Ok maybe I am dense but explain this to me lol - doesn't the odds change with ever hand dealt if your down to the middle of the deck? I mean there is no shuffle between hands. If there was a shuffle between hands the odds would stay the same always.
But with no shuffle depending on what cards have already been played in previous hands doesn't that change your odd? For example - card counters who keep track of cards played....
Just curious PokerGuru - 02.10.2008, 22:53 Post subject: You have an amazing mind, Valeria. Maybe because it is always searching for more!
To answer your question: The deck IS shuffled between every hand in poker.
