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PokerGuru
27.05.2009, 16:37

5-27 DAILY POKER WISDOM
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Ok, my scholars, I think we have reached a point where I should start giving you some probabilities.

I suggest you put some of these that you might have a hard time remembering while playing, on a 3 x 5 or 5 x7 card and keep it beside you when playing online.  Soon you will have them all in your head and won't need your card anymore.

First, I am going to give you a few preflop probabilities.

Then some flop probabil.ities.

Then some probabilities for the turn and river.



OK.  STARTING WITH PREFLOP:  (least important)


Probability of being dealt a pocket pair ..... 5.9%

Probabiliity of being dealt suited cards ..... 23.5%

Probability of being dealt AA ..... 0.45%

Probability of being dealt connecting cards..... 15.7%


FLOP:

Probability of hitting 3 of a kind or 4 of a kind at the flop when you hold a pocket pair ..... 11.8%

Probability you will make a pair at the flop if you are holding 2 unpaired cards in the hole ..... 32.4%

Probability of flopping a a flush, holding 2 suited cards ..... 0.84%


TURN/RIVER


Probability of  hitting a flush when you hold 2 suited cards on the turn  ..... 19.1%

Probability of hitting a flush when you hold 2 suited cards on the river ..... 19.6%

Probability of hitting a straight on the turn ..... 17%

Probability of hitting a straight on the river ..... 17.4%


NOW.  What is the point of knowing these probabilities?  Think a minute or two.

Did you figure it out?

To guide you in knowing how much to bet!  Did you figure it out?

PCers, those are the only ones I have experimented with enough myself to prove their dependability enough on how much to bet.

You may find probabilities in a lot of poker books, but these are the only ones I can personally guarantee.

I have also experimented with others, but in my opinion, the evidence was not strong enough often enough for me to depend on their reliability -- or to guarantee them.

Authors of poker books will, of course, disagree with me.  But I will sit down at the table with them any time for any amount of stakes! 

MY POINT:  Be careful whose word you depend on.  Consider first their motive.


YourGuru 

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crzynana2001
27.05.2009, 18:25


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Be careful whose word you depend on. Consider first their motive.


Very wise advice!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!